Chalk or Pivot - Week 13

This article is aimed to dissect whether the highest owned players on this Draft Kings slate are worth playing in GPPs or if you should pivot to an under-owned / higher upside player.  In GPPs, I try to target players that will 4x their salary or better.  In worst case floor options, we must 3x their salary. 

For example, if a player is priced at $6,000 – I want them to score 24 points or higher but at the floor, they need to score 18 points for the lineup to be viable.  ($6k x 4 = 24 points, $6k x 3 = 18 points)

Top Projected Owned in Week 13

·         RB Chase Brown (35.83% Ownership vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

·         WR David Moore (30.4% vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

·         RB Alvin Kamara (25.7% Ownership vs LA Rams)

·         TE Taysom Hill (23.1% vs LA Rams)

·         RB Bijan Robinson (22.05% vs LA Chargers)

and MORE!

Quarterback

$5,600 - Justin Herbert (17.4% Ownership at Atlanta Falcons)

• Justin Herbert remains one of the most talented QBs in the world but under Greg Roman’s offense, he does not have to prove that every week.  He’s been efficient (13 TDs, 1 INT) but is 19th in the NFL in PPG.  Also tacks on 211 rush yards and a TD which is on pace for a career high.

• Coming in at the low low price of $5,600 – this is the highest he’s been priced since Week 3 vs the Steelers. 

• He’s exceeded 3x value ($5.6 x 3 = 16.8 DK Points) in his last six games as the Chargers chemistry with the Roman system grows.  Herbert has hit the 4x mark 2 out of the last 5 games as well (25.38 DK Points vs Bengals and 24.06 DK Points vs the Saints).

• Falcons Defense will be without starting CB Mike Hughes.  They play primarily Cover 3 + Cover 6 at a top 5 rate in the league – which Herbert excels at.  With JK Dobbins going on the IR, Gus Edwards looking like dust, Haskin/Vidal unproven, I believe this will be a game where the Chargers lean on Herbert more.

• Prediction:  Play Him!  I believe Herbert absolutely hits the floor (16.8 DKPTs) and flirts with 25 DK Points.

Running Back

$6,200 - Chase Brown (35.83% Ownership vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

• Chase has been electric since Zack Moss went down posting games of 19.3, 23.4, and 29.7 DK PTs.  More importantly, he’s been the only RB to carry the ball in those 3 games.  It hasn’t hurt that his defense has been water trash (Combined Over/Unders of 65, 69, and 61 the last 3) so he’s been a checkdown merchant, tallying 19 catches in the last 3 as well.

• Coming out of the bye week, I believe Khalil Herbert will be taking some of the load off Chase.  It’s very difficult to get traded to a team and pick up the terminology quickly.  The bye week will help simplify this for him.  I can see him getting 20% of the snaps.

• Steelers Defense is top 4 in rush yards per game (90.1) and allow the 5th least explosive runs (3.2% of carries go for 15+).  LB Alex Highsmith will miss his 3rd straight game for the steelers  and Bengals may be without LT Orlanda Brown who is Questionable.

• Prediction: Pivot!  I believe he MAY get to the floor (18.6 points) but it would be necessary to score a TD to get to 4x value.  It’s tough to envision him getting to 100 rushing yards (for the DK 3 point bonus) against this defense.  I think 80 yards rushing, 5 catches, 40 yards (17 PPR points).  Consider pivoting to Tony Pollard ($100 more, 30% less ownership).

$7,700 - Alvin Kamara (25.7% Ownership vs LA Rams)

• Alvin Kamara has had a few spike weeks this season to make him PPR RB 3 overall and PPR RB 4 in PPG.  The last 7 weeks have been average despite 1 spike week (PPR RB 13 in PPG). 

• Kamara is the ultimate TD Regression candidate to score this week.  Alvin hasn’t had a TD since Week 7.  Counterpart, ATH Taysom Hill has scored 4 TDs in the last 4 weeks.  I’m a firm believer in keeping your stars happy (and they paid Kamara $24.5 Million in October) but hasn’t scored since.  It’s very likely Kamara scores vs this Rams defense.

• Rams Defense has been bottom 5 in the league this year and coming off a game where the entire nation saw Saquon Barkley run for 255 yards (and 314 as a team).  This is also the team that has held De’Von Achane to 37 yards on 12 carries just 3 weeks ago.  I think this Rams defense has some pride (although they shouldn’t) and with just a 13% chance of making the playoffs – they will not let a repeat of last week happen.

• Prediction: Pivot!  I’m torn.  I woudn’t be mad at this play but the ownership is too much.  I can’t see this being 30.8 PPR game for Kamara the week after they gave up approximately 4,421 to Saquon.  Rams clean up their missed assignments and tackling to hold Kamara to 23.5 PPR Points.  Consider pivoting up to Joe Mixon ($300 more, 14% less ownership) or spending down a lot more to pay up at other positions.

Wide Receiver

$3,500 - David Moore (30.4% vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

• David Moore came out of the Carolina BYE week with Coker / Sanders out, Diontae Johnson sent away and ate his way to a 10 target, 6 catch, 81 yard, 1 TD performance with a 94% snap share.  The 29 year old on his 5th team showed decent route running skills working in the slot but not a ton of explosion or separation – great hands though. 

• Tampa’s defense will be without  SAF Jordan Whtiehead, SAF Tykee Smith, LB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, LB Markees Watts while CB Troy Hill and LB Anthony Nelson are questionable.  A true mash unit that’s already a bottom 5 pass defense.  At a 46.5 point over/under – the pace should be decent and Bryce Young will be spreading the ball out (especially if they fall behind early).

• Prediction: Play!  If you are running a stars and scrubs lineup, I believe he’s completely acceptable to plug into your DFS roster but temper expectations.  4 catches for 60 yards gets him to the floor.  A TD would be a great bonus but I think this can pay off.  If you were to pivot away from the 30% ownership, I’d consider Jalen McMillan ($3,700) on the other side of the field.

$6,600 - Tee Higgins (21.46% vs Pittsburgh Steelers)

• Tee is coming off his best game of the year (9 catches on 13 targets, 148 yards and 1 TD) after missing the previous 3 games due to injury.   Much like Chase Brown’s situation, the Bengals can’t avoid getting into shootouts but they have the QB to feed them.

• Defenses know what Ja’Marr Chase is capable of and now have to pick their poison when both of these dudes are on the field.  They can no longer bracket (2 – Man) Ja’Marr without paying the price to the tune of Tee’s explosiveness in essentially a contract year.

• Steelers Pass Defense has been slightly above average this year but turned it on as of late, holding Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 207 pass yards and less than 50% Completion %.

• Prediction: Pivot!  We need Tee to hit 20 PPR Points to get to his 3x Floor and he’s only done this twice in the last 6 games.  To hit his 4x Value – we’d need 26.6 points – a feat he’s only accomplished four times in the last 20 games.  Consider Mike Evans ($100 more, 6% less ownership) or Zay Flowers ($400 less, 12% less ownership).

Tight End

$5,000 - Taysom Hill (23.1% vs LA Rams)

• Taysom has been used as a true Boobie Miles athlete, playing QB, RB, FB, TE and I may have seen him hand the ref water at one point.

• 46.52 DK Points in his last contest vs a sad Cleveland team shows his ceiling is still unknown.  At $5,000 – it’s hard to imagine he doesn’t get 15 PPR as a floor. 

• Prediction: Play!  I think the Saints do force a Kamara TD but even if the Rams keep Taysom out of the endzone, he can still get there with receptions, rushing yards and passing yards.  If you are considering pivoting, there’s a ton of lower cost options (Taysom is the 2nd most expensive TE on this slate)

Defense

$2,800 - Indianapolis Colts (23.59% at New England Patriots)

• The floor for the Colts to payoff is 8.4 DK Points.  They hit this mark just 3 out of their 12 games so far – I don’t love those odds.  They’ll be playing in a chilly New England contest against a banged up OL.  

• Prediction: Pivot!  The Patriots are projected the 2nd least points but that doesn’t tell the whole story.  Maye has been sacked 7x the last 2 games but the Colts are giving up 27 points per game over the last 3.  I think both teams will have limited possessions and opportunities to score and get scored on.  There’s no standout values for defense on this slate but I’d actually consider pivoting across the field to the Patriots ($300 less, 18% less ownership).  With Downs out and Alec Pierce banged up, I think it’s easier for the Patriots to get to their value.

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