Finding Bucky

Article by Nate P. (BallCoach_Nate on X)

05.13.2025

Best Ball is a beautiful game that requires you to take calculated risks with each draft pick and each limited entry.  So who is this year’s Bucky Irving?  This is not the question we should be asking.  There is no “next guy” that we can knowingly say but the question should be, who fits the mold of the next rookie breakout RB.  In order for this to happen, I narrowed down a long list into 3 important characteristics that need to be checked off:

1)      Can they play on 3rd down?

a.      Are they able to understand blocking assignments? 

b.      Do they know the playbook in and out so that calls aren’t limited and pass pro isn’t bastardized?

c.      Can they catch?

d.      Do they have the ability to run routes to a degree?

2)      KYP – Know Your Personnel

a.      Who is the starting RB? 

b.      Who is the backup RB?

c.      How did they perform last year? 

d.      Did anyone recently get signed?  What is the signing bonus?

e.      Can they catch or play on 3rd down?

f.        Are all these MFs replaceable?

3)      Are they healthy and available?

a.      For most, we won’t know this until mid-August

b.      But we do know who IS injured and injured last year.  Look at Jonathon Brooks and the bags people had for him.  We can have a good idea of a timeline to return to play based on this context and we can add additional weeks and months for them to get up to full speed.

In 2021, the Seattle Seahawks depth chart for week 1 was Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Travis Homer.  Fast forward 17 weeks and we have:

-Chris Carson – 54 carries / 232 yards / 3 TDs

-Rashaad Penny – 96 carries / 559 yards / 5 TDs

-Travis Homer – 20 carries / 173 yards / 1 TD

The season ended with Rashaad Penny being a possible free agent and never living up to his 1st round draft status, Chris Carson’s career ending due to a neck injury and Travis Homer never topping 22 carries in his first 3 seasons. 

This set the scene for Seahawks to draft playmaker Kenneth Walker III out of Michigan State in the 2nd round of 2022.  Over 220 carries and 1,050 yards plus 9 TDs later, K9 was selected 2nd in the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting.

Also in 2022, Tyler Allgeier was 2nd in most snaps played by a rookie RB.  The week 1 starter for the Falcons was Cordarelle Patterson being backed up by THE Damien Williams.  Even for a 5th rounder like Allgeier, the opportunity to win reps and get on the field was very high.  Allgeier finished with 210 carries for 1,035 yards.  This was a solid performance for a 5th round flyer but not enough production and talent to stop the Falcons from…

Drafting Bijan Robinson in the 2023 NFL Draft.  Bijan lead the rookie RB class with 272 snaps, 214 carries, 969 yards, and 4 TDs (despite Arthur Smith’s attempts to limit his success).  Much like Allgeier’s path, Bijan had a 1st round pedigree with not much in his way of competing for the starting job; he took full advantage.

In 2023, Rachaad White carried the ball 272 times for 990 yards – a disgustingly low 3.6 yards per carry (and 39 missed tackles forced on 272 carries, a slightly lower percentage than Javonte Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire).   The Buccaneers got a ton of value by drafting Bucky Irving in the 4th round, thanks to his poor 40 yard dash time (4.55 seconds). 

Side note: more players are opting not to run because this can hurt them way more than it can help them.  Game speed will always be preferred over someone losing 10 pounds and working their 40 yard dash technique for 4 months before the “biggest test of their life” so it’s your eyes that have to play a big part in the evaluation process.  Running a fast 40 proves what they are capable of but it does not mean they can play that fast.

Bucky Irving finished his 2023 college season with a 6.5 yards per carry and 61 Missed Tackles Forced on 163 carries (2nd highest percentage in the NCAA behind Bhayshul Tuten).  Liam Coen’s offense needed a spark and that’s exactly what he provided.  Bucky outscored and outsnapped every rookie RB in the 2024 class while most thought Blake Corum would take over for Kyren and MarShawn Lloyd would steal carries from Josh Jacobs and Kimani Vidal would… nevermind.

The other dawg in the 2024 draft was Tyrone Tracy.   Devin “dust” Singletary was the starter for the Giants, backed up by Eric Gray (17 carries for 48 yards (2.8 ypc).  Tracy, the athletic RB and former converted WR, had opportunity in front of him and seized it.

Now let’s look at the 2025 NFL RB situations that are ripe for the picking

Top Landing Spots (TARGET THEM)

RJ Harvey and the Denver Broncos

Pros:

-3rd most rushing yards (1,578) in NCAA last year, 2nd most rushing TDs (22)

-2nd most 10+ runs (only 1 behind Ashton Jeanty even with 82 less rush attempts)

-Top end speed to make house calls and size to break arm tackles

-Can change direction without losing speed, very smooth and quicker than fast.

-Has almost no competition for a full workload of carries.

-Broncos OL is one of the top units in the NFL anchored by Quinn Meinerz and Garett Bolles

Cons:

-The top landing spot is already built into the ADP (53.9 on Draft Kings, 54.7 on Underdog)

-Some people call Sean Payton a mad scientist but I call him an idiot.  He can change his mind during the game on which RB will play based on who looked at him funny.  Be careful of Blake Watson stealing 1st down runs, Jaleel McLaughlin stealing 3rd down reps, and Audric Estime stealing goal line carries. 

Bhayshul Tuten and the Jacksonville Jaguars

Pros:

-Racked up 62 missed tackles forced on 183 carries, just behind Jeanty.

-Currently ADP 132 on Draft Kings and 117.2 on Underdog, about RB 41.

-Very similar situation and vibes as Bucky/Bucs in 2024.  A juiceless Etienne (3.7 ypc, 45th ranked RB in Missed Tackles Forced with 17 total) who was giving up more and more carries to Tank Bigsby (previous year’s 3rd round pick).  I actually think Tuten and Bigsby are more complementary than Etienne and Tuten. 

-Handpicked by Liam (and Gladstone).

Cons:

-Tank Bigsby showed the ability to carry a full workload and had flashes of greatness in a handful of games before Trevor Lawrence got hurt.  You will be betting on him not to take a step forward.

-Four fumbles in 2024, 2nd most in the NCAA – if ball security is an issue, his snaps will vanish.

Jaydon Blue and the Dallas Cowboys

Pros:

-7th in NCAA in targets last year (48)

-Shades of Achane as far as physical build (5’8 ½ vs 5’9” – 1.52 vs 1.51 10-yard split – 4.3 40 yard dash) and receiving skills.

-Javonte Williams (1 Year, $3M Contract) and Miles Sanders (1 year / $1.3M Contract) stand in his way of getting touches.

-Explosive athlete who can give you the spike week needed week 17 over the elder RBs who provide more of a floor.

Cons:

-Undersized, will not carry full workload.  Did not lead his team’s backfield in carries, ever. 

-Brian Schottenheimer is the new HC and Playcaller.  His last full season calling plays was for the 2020 Seattle Seahawks who did not record a 100 yard rusher that year.

50-50 Landing Spots (Target at a Lower Exposure)

TreVeyon Henderson and the New England Patriots

-Extremely athletic and talented player with very good draft capital (R2, P6). 

-Can play all 3 downs but Rhamondre Stevenson just signed a thicc contract at 4 years, $36M last year.  It’s a two back league now so will TreVeyon payoff his ADP (62 on DK, 61.8 on Underdog) or will Stevenson be the value play (ADP 125 on DK, 130 on Underdog).

Kaleb Johnson and the Pittsburgh Steelers 

-Tough, physical runner with ideal size but lacks speed and athleticism to be the homerun hitter.   Steelers literally drafted a younger Najee Harris in terms of size and athleticism (6’1” – 220s – 4.5 40)

-Good compliment to Jaylen Warren but we can not turn a blind eye to the signing of Ken Gainwell and Arthur Smith’s romantic love (Cordarelle Patterson).

-Kaleb’s ADP is 30 spots ahead of Jaylen Warren’s (75 on DK compared to 105).  Too early to tell if he’ll take the backseat to Jaylen Warren on 1st and 2nd down or if the offense will move through him.

Omarion Hampton and the Los Angeles Chargers   

                -Seems to fit perfectly in this Chargers offense – not a guy with top end speed who can take it to the house any given play but the ideal hard, tough runner in Jim Harbaugh’s offense that will get 4-5 yards a carry and suffocate a defense to death. 

                -Had 4 games last year without a 20 yard rush or greater (over 120 carries – he is a very good plodder).

                -Najee Harris signed a 1 year $5.2M Contract that is fully guaranteed.  Much like the Kaleb/Jaylen situation in Pittsburgh, will Omarion be the lead dawg or will Najee set the tone.  I think both can produce (and well) as they are both upgrades of Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins but will it be worth the ADP 44 (RB 16) rank that Hampton is currently going at? 

Quinshon Judkins and the Cleveland Browns

-Protoypical size for an NFL back and athletic freak with great draft capital.  Only Jerome Ford standing in his way for carries. 

-Cleveland Browns QB situation and half their OL is a mess so it’s truly anyone’s guess as far as his ceiling for his rookie year.  Fully capable of a 3 TD week 17.

-Sidenote: Not touching Dylan Sampson

Not So Hot Landing Spots  (Very Low Exposure)

Cam Skattebo and the New York Giants

                -2nd in the NCAA in Missed Tackles Forced (103 on 294 attempts).  Reminds me of Isaiah Pacheco in terms of style and size (5’10 – 215).

-Finds himself 3rd on the depth chart behind Devin “Motor” Singletary who is a Daboll favorite and Tyrone Tracy. 

-Aside from an injury to Singletary, I can envision Cam Skattebo getting early down work halfway through the season while Tyrone Tracy, the natural WR and former pass catcher, takes on 3rd down responsibilities.   

-Giants / OL Effect – Look what Saquon Barkley did on an above average OL and offense.  There are a lot of unknowns in this offense which makes Cam a tough click at his current ADP.

Woody Marks and the Houston Texans

-Ideal situation to be a 3rd down back for the Texans as he is a fine pass catcher and intelligent enough for pass protection. 

-Joe Mixon proved he can carry the ball 30x a game last year – if Woody doesn’t step up, new OC Nick Caley should not have hesitation relying on Mixon. 

-Overall, I did not love Woody’s film – he is perfectly average but does nothing impressive that pops off the screen.   You are literally betting on Mixon to get hurt and for Marks to take 80% of snap share.

Not Touching (No Exposure)

Kyle Monangai and the Chicago Bears

-7th round, 4.6 – 40 yard dash prospect.  I would not put too much stock into him taking shares and snaps from Swift and Roschon Johnson. 

-If you are thinking he’s Ben Johnson’s Jahmyr Gibbs, he’s more like Ben Johnson’s Sione Vaki.

Trevor Etienne and the Carolina Panthers

-Talented 4th round prospect that is a bit undersized and lacks top end speed to score from anywhere on the field.

-He has to outplay Chuba Hubbard (signed 4 year / $33M deal last year and obvious coach’s favorite) as well as newly signed free agent Rico Dowdle who was more than capable in Dallas. 

-Tough to envision a scenario where he’s the lead back and producing spike weeks in this offense without multiple injuries occurring to the other backs.

Brashard Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs

-7th round pick as a converted WR (Tyrone Tracy?) who is a very raw runner but may find himself getting snaps as the 3rd down back in KC. 

-I find it unlikely has they are rolling out Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and newly signed Elijah Mitchell.  The hype train reminds me of Carson Steele and Louis Rees-Zammit of last year.

-I will not be clicking his name yet but will follow August camp news to see how this RB rotation shakes out.

Jarquez Hunter and the Los Angeles Rams

-4th round pick and solid 2 down RB but offers very little in pass game (0.73 Y/RR).

-McVay has shown he will rely on Kyren Williams all game if he has to. 

-Blake Corum will have a lot to prove and I believe is more talented than Hunter.   Once again hard to envision Hunter taking meaningful snaps his rookie year.

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