From the Felt to Fantasy: How Fantasy Football and Poker Align

By Tim Goldberg (@FireUpFantasyTG on X)

May 23, 2025

NFL Best Ball, basically poker, but with touchdowns.

Call me crazy, but that sounds like two of my favorite things blended into one beautiful, degenerate cocktail.

It is no surprise the poker and Best Ball communities have started to overlap, considering how many similarities exist in the nuances of both games. Once you understand the overall basics, Best Ball, DFS, and poker are basically the same game, just written in different fonts.

All three formats are about reading the room, recognizing the situation, and making smart plays… all while trying not to lose your shit when everything inevitably goes sideways.

Let’s break it down.

Finding Value vs. Playing Safe

Poker players do not chase wins, we chase expected value. We know you can make the right decision 10 times and still go broke. But in the long run, making good mathematical and calculated decisions is essentially printing money.

If your entire thought process is based on results-oriented data, that is just a scared mindset. And everyone knows, “scared money don’t make money.”

DFS and Best Ball are the exact same. You are not here to draft “safe” guys who score 9 points every week. You are here to build teams that can drop 20+ in Week 17 and win you a brand-new car or a fancy new e-bike if that is more your speed, you little nerd.

In DFS, fading a chalky RB in a gross game, that is just an obvious smart move in any GPP format. If you are trying to min-cash, cool, take your $4 and I will see you next week.

In Best Ball, drafting a rookie WR who was just shot in the chest a few weeks ago might feel risky... but he could end up being a league-winner. (Example: Ricky Pearsall scoring 31.70 points in Week 17 and being part of the DraftKings Milly Maker lineup.)

In poker, “Check-raising stupid tourists and taking huge pots off them. Playing all-night high-limit Hold’em at the Taj, where the sand turns to gold...”

Okay, that is a quote from Edward Norton in Rounders, but you get what I’m saying.

Tournaments Are Not for the Weak

If you are just trying to “min-cash” a GPP, ladder up in a poker tournament, or sneak into the Best Ball playoffs… congrats, you are a loser and you are playing to lose.

Kidding. (But honestly, not really.)

It is incredibly difficult to take down top-heavy tournaments in any format. Whether it’s Best Ball, DFS, or poker, you need a mix of skill and luck to find yourself securing that top prize money. I do not have the exact recipe, but I know Step 1 is definitely not “play it safe.”

In Best Ball, this looks like:

Stacking volatile players.

Drafting boom-or-bust guys. Speed demons who can house it on any play. Sounds crazy, but maybe a Calvin Austin type player. (Reminder: safe does not win.)

Chasing upside.

Targeting players who should outperform their ADP. For me, that might look like Christian Kirk. Coming off a down year and now playing in a new city, he is being drafted in the 12th round. But if he produces like he did in 2022 and 2023, where he averaged 81 receptions, 1,045 yards, and 7 touchdowns, he would be a 5th or 6th round pick. Those stats are comparable to 2024 Cooper Kupp or Khalil Shakir, who are both being drafted in round 7 this year.

Finding but not reaching on rookies.

This year, I am watching Pat Bryant of the Denver Broncos. He is currently going in the 16th round, but under Bo Nix, that passing attack could be the best it has been since the Peyton Manning days. Sean Payton’s already compared him to a healthy Michael Thomas, which is a nice comparison. Is PB a lock? Of course not. But again, safe does not pay the bills, pal.

Stacking Is not Just a Fun Word, Idiot

Poker players live for patterns. We adjust to our opponents. We pick up tendencies and exploit them. Best Ball is the same thing, just with running backs and receivers instead of pocket deuces and suited connectors.

·       Stack your QB with a pass-catcher (or two).

·       Add a bring-back from the other side in Week 17.

·       Lean into game environments that could be high-scoring.

More on that in my previous article, link below: “How Much Stack is Too Much Stack?”

Just Pay Attention:

Poker is all about leveling:

·       Level 1: What do I have?

·       Level 2: What does my opponent have?

·       Level 3: What does my opponent think I have?

·       Level 4: What am I going to do about it?

Same thing in Best Ball. You must read the room.

·       Everyone reaching for WRs early? Smash RBs.

·       Everyone stacking KC/DEN in Week 17? Get weird with DET/MIN or BALT/GB.

·       The whole lobby asleep on late-round QBs? Sneak in a double-stack and move on.

·       TE’s are flying this draft, I better secure one before it is too late.

You do not beat 882,144 entries in the DraftKings Milly Maker by just clicking random players, drafting chalk, and crying yourself to sleep. You beat them by being different on purpose, but still sharp.

Contrarian does not mean reckless. It means strategically looking for opportunities to get your money in good with unique lineups that provide the value you need to win the whole damn thing. When they are bobbing, you should weave, it not too difficult.

Variance and Tilt: What to Understand

Poker players do not rage-quit after a bad beat (okay, sometimes we do, but we always come back). We understand variance. We know our edge shows up over hundreds of hands, not one bad river card.

We’ve all triple-barrel bluffed a missed flush draw. We have also been felted slow playing a flopped set. It is part of the process. It is variance. So, while both poker and Best Ball are skill games, we know luck still plays its part.

Same deal in Best Ball:

·       You will draft 150 teams. 100 will be bad. 25 will be great. 25 will feel cursed. But it only takes one to take down a tourney.

·       You will lose to a Pearsall 30-piece in the finals because you ripped Deebo and Aiyuk all year.

·       Your WR1 will go nuts in Week 14… and tweak an ankle on the first drive of the playoffs.

There will be endless things that make you want to rip your hair out but just trust the process because if it is happening to you, it is happening to everyone. Continue to do what you are doing and trust the process. Just do not lose your mind over things you can't control because...

As Omar Little says: “It’s all in the game.”

And remember, just because you drafted an injured WR in the 18th round doesn’t mean you’re crazy. It means you are not afraid. It means you want to WIN.

Now, good luck at the local poker tables and your draft lobbies.

May this be the year you CRUSH them both!