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Is Alec Pierce More Valuable than we Thought?

Written by Tim G. (@FireUpFantasyTG on X)


Some players have an innate ability to make game-changing plays when it matters most. This is the impression I've gained from watching Alec Pierce, the Indianapolis Colts' 2022 second-round pick out of Cincinnati. Despite being under-appreciated by many, Pierce's big-play potential is undeniable—and his stats tell the story.


In 2024, Pierce has already recorded five receptions of 40+ yards on just 23 total catches, meaning nearly 19% of his receptions have gone for 40 yards or more. For perspective, Ja'Marr Chase—who leads the league in 40+ yard receptions—has six such catches, only one more than Pierce. However, Chase has been targeted 87 times, while Pierce has just 40. Now, I’m not suggesting Pierce is better than Chase—that’s an unfair comparison—but I am highlighting that Pierce’s big-play ability makes him far more valuable than many realize.


Despite a struggling Indianapolis Colts offense, Pierce has consistently stretched the field with his 4.41 40-yard speed, creating more opportunities for the running backs, including Jonathan Taylor, as well as backups like Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson when Taylor was sidelined. The impact of a deep threat like Pierce goes far beyond the numbers; it forces defenses to adjust, opening up space and creating opportunities for others to thrive.


This week, the Colts will face off against the New York Jets, who boast the NFL's top-ranked pass defense, anchored by star cornerback Sauce Gardner. Known for his physical play and exceptional ability to shut down the opposing team's top wide receiver, Gardner will present a tough challenge for the Colts' passing game. While Pierce may not be Indianapolis' top all-around receiver, he has lined up as the X receiver for 57% of his snaps, where he’s likely to face off against Gardner. This matchup promises to be fast, physical, and filled with excitement.


Anthony Richardson, the Colts' starting quarterback, will return to the lineup after missing multiple weeks due to injury and then a few week benching. Richardson has had a tough stretch this season, struggling with accuracy, decision-making, consistency, and efficiency before being replaced by veteran Joe Flacco. Richardson even acknowledged that fatigue led him to pull himself from a game. Despite these challenges, Richardson’s strong arm complements Pierce’s deep-ball ability, and as Richardson continues to develop, their connection will only improve. While injuries have hindered Richardson’s progress, continued reps should accelerate his growth and chemistry with Pierce.


Meanwhile, second-year wide receiver Josh Downs has been consistently mediocre this season, with 45 receptions for 483 yards and 3 touchdowns on 66 targets. Rookie Adonai Mitchell has been mostly invisible, with just 18 receptions and no touchdowns in his early NFL career. To add to the struggles of the Indianapolis passing game, highly touted wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has underperformed, with just 30 catches and 2 touchdowns. If the Colts are to make a second-half push, Pittman will need to improve. These challenges, however, have opened the door for Pierce to make an impact, utilizing his breakaway speed and impressive 22.4 yards per reception average.


Looking ahead, Alec Pierce should be viewed as a solid flex option in all season-long leagues and an excellent value pick in DFS formats ($5,400 on DraftKings and FanDuel), especially when facing teams with weaker or banged-up secondaries, or those ranked in the bottom third of the league in pass defense. While this Sunday’s matchup against the top-ranked pass defense of the New York Jets may not fit that criteria, as the saying goes, "Any Given Sunday."


In best-ball formats, Alec Pierce was often overlooked, going undrafted in many leagues or selected in the 18th to 20th rounds on DraftKings. His boom-or-bust style makes him a perfect fit for this format, offering high-reward potential for those targeting late-round value picks.


Overall, Alec Pierce remains an underrated and undervalued player, creating a clear opportunity for savvy fantasy managers. Whether targeting late-round picks in upcoming best-ball leagues or identifying potential flex options for the rest of the season, Pierce offers significant upside that shouldn’t go unnoticed.


For more content and analysis, follow Tim G on X @FireUpFantasyTG



 
 
 

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