So You Want to Punt TE:
- Nate Pryzbek
- May 19
- 6 min read
A Guide to Stopping Yourself from Self-Sabotage
By Nate P. (BallCoach_Nate on X)
(There are two charts at the bottom of this article that you can refer back to as you read this article. One is the TE Weekly Finish Rank based on the 2024 Season Performance. The other chart is the same data but sorted by 2024 pre-season average ADP.)
So you want to Punt TE. I’ve been there. I’ve drafted Kyle Pitts. I’ve hammered Darren Waller. I’ve drafted Kyle Pitts again. All the while witnessing the Tucker Krafts and Jonnu Smiths dunk on my head. It’s enough to drive a man to do crazy things. Burn the house down and never draft a TE again. You think drafting a TE in the last 3 rounds is hardcore? Try drafting ZERO. I didn’t do that, but I glanced at it.
STOP.
This is not the answer. Cooler heads prevail and so will top TEs. Let’s look at the most recent NFL season and drink it all in.
1) Travis Kelce was the unanimous 1st TE taken and he finished TE 6 in 2024.
a. This included a 18.4 FP week 17 performance that would have given you a real shot at the championship (TE 3 week 17)
2) Sam LaPorta was the 2nd TE off the board according to ADP. Sammy Meatballs finished TE 7 on the season.
a. LaPorta finished the fantasy football playoff run with an amazing performance (TE2 in week 15, TE 5 in week 16, TE 5 in week 17)
3) Trey McBride was the 3rd TE taken in best ball and he finished TE 3 on the season.
a. Besides finishing TE 3 in week 15 and TE 1 in week 17, he was also on the BBM 1st place team by scoring 24.3 FP. That’s a million dollar selection.
4) Mark Andrews was the 4th TE taken and finished the season TE 5.
a. He gave teams three top 3 performances and ten top 12 performances on the season. The year started off rocky but he finished the last 5 weeks as TE 8,4,9,7,7.
5) George Kittle was the 6th TE off the board and finished the season TE 4.
a. He ended up giving you six top 3 performances and only ONE game where he wasn’t a top 12 TE (in the games he did play in). Truly a model of consistency which ideal for best ball when you mix in his big spike week potential.
I know what you’re thinking. What about the guys that let you down and underperformed? Well you shouldn’t have drafted them. I’m kidding – let’s get into it.
1) Dalton Kincaid – 5th TE taken based on ADP in 0.5 PPR. He finished the disappointing season as TE 29. Kincaid also only finished as a top 12 TE once.
So why was Kincaid going as TE 5? I’m not entirely sure. Let’s look at the 2023 season.
Kincaid had 10 games where he finished with under 10 FPs.
Kincaid had ZERO games over 15 FPs
If you exclude week 18, his best finish was TE 4 and only had FIVE weeks where he finished in the top 10.
The Bills fired Ken Dorsey after week 10 and promoted Joe Brady.
From week 11 to week 17, Kincaid had ONE game over 8 FPs.
In the offseason heading into 2024, the Bills signed Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, and drafted Keon Coleman.
Joe Brady was able fully install his offense for the 2024 season. The last time he was OC, he ran the Panthers offense that produced 26 total receptions to TEs in 2020. That is less than TWO receptions per game.
Before Joe Brady was fired in 2021, the TEs recorded 13 total receptions in the first 12 games.
All signs pointed to Joe Brady’s having a scheme where the TEs are used to block more than a featured WR – even with the lack of WR talent on the Bills offense.
Unfortunately as fans, we propped up Kincaid into a tier that he should have never been in.
2) Kyle Pitts – 7th TE drafted in 2024 and he finished TE 15.
We could no longer blame Arthur Smith for his poor seasons and stat lines.
Pitts had two top 3 performances but busted out in six games.
Pitts is an athletic freak but he lacks one important trait as a TE – blocking skills. A lot of TE performance is linked to play action success and if you line up on the LOS (line of scrimmage) 51.5% of the time, as Pitts did last year, you need to be able to block. See Jonnu Smith’s 2023 season help foreshadow his 2024 performance.
Pitts ADP of 145.4 (TE 18) may finally reflect his skills and consistency.
3) Evan Engram – 8th TE drafted in 2024 and finished as TE 33.
The entire Jaguars organization from Owner to Ball Boy underperformed and probably got injured in 2024. Evan Engram was no exception.
Engram missed 4 of the first 5 games and 7 total games on the year.
Trevor Lawrence was injured and did not play after week 9.
Engram was only able to put together two top 12 performances.
Engram enters the year tweeting Joker GIFs and aspires to be the Jimmy Graham of Sean Payton’s offense. Currently being drafted at 111.2 ADP (TE 9) – this could be a big bounce back year for Engram.
4) Jake Ferguson – 9th TE drafted in 2024 and finished as TE 30.
Ferguson started off the year hot! He was a top 3 TE in week 3 and finished top 12 in 3 of the first 5 weeks. Then disaster happened.
Much like Evan Engram suffering due to T-Law being injured, Ferguson’s production dropped off when Dak got injured week 9 and didn’t play another down.
Ferguson’s best finish after week 9 was TE 17.
Ferguson is currently being drafted at TE 15 which I believe is fair for his talent and situation. Former Dallas OC and now HC, Brian Schottenheimer will call plays now so the offense may look a little bit different than Mike McCarthy’s.
This was a breakdown of the top 9 TEs taken.
The 10th TE taken was Brock Bowers who was a 2x John Mackey award winner for Best TE in college football. He was debatably the best player in the 2024 NFL draft but positional value (and hairline) dropped him to the 13th overall pick and the Raiders. Former OC Luke Getsy highlighted TEs and before Getsy was fired, he featured him early and often, as Bowers finished as TE 3 in the first two weeks of his career. A new king has been crowned and I will not be fading him at his ADP and ability to drop 25 FP any week.
Let’s look at the Punt TE Strategy
So if you punted TE in 2024 you probably didn’t have a great advance rate. But what if you did advance some teams? How did they turn out for the playoffs?
TE 25 was an average ADP of 194 which would be round 16. Call it the Cade Otton line.
Week 15
TE 25 (or adp 194 or lower)
There were 0 top 3 performances of these 30+ TEs
There were 3 top 12 performances
There were 4 top 20 performances
-Great, you drafted all the right QBs, WRs, and RBs to advance you and you nailed a top 12 TE to advance to week 16, even though you didn’t have a top 3 TE performance.
Week 16
TE 25 (or adp 194 or lower)
There were 0 top 3 performances of these 30+ TEs
There were 1 top 12 performances
There were 4 top 20 performances
-Wow, you caught lightning in a bottle twice! You had the right combination of TEs that finished top 12 in week 15. Even though:
Brenton Strange finished TE 4 in week 15, he finished TE 46 in week 16.
Foster Moreau finished TE 6 in week 15, he finished TE 25 in week 16.
Noah Gray finished TE 10 in week 15, he finished TE 41 in week 16.
Week 17
TE 25 (or adp 194 or lower)
There were 1 top 3 performances of these 30+ TEs
There were 3 top 12 performances
There were 5 top 20 performances
-Congrats, you some how drafted a combination of Brenton Strange (finished TE 32 on the season), AJ Barner (finished TE 35 on the season) and Zach Ertz (finished TE 8 on the season).
Zach Ertz finished TE 28 week 15, TE 40 in week 16, and TE 2 in week 17.
In my opinion, the odds of you getting these punt TEs correct PLUS drafting all the right guys in the first 15 rounds with limited entries / bullets is incredibly low. It’s a great strategy on paper but with context, it does not make sense. In addition to there being many holes with this approach, you are also creating a ton of value with the TEs for players who are NOT using the PUNT TE strategy.
For every TE you pass on, their ADP gets a little bit lower. Now instead of Bowers being an ADP of 15.4, maybe he’s 17 or 18. Instead of Pitts being 145 ADP, maybe he’s 150 to 155.
In conclusion, I urge you to keep punting TE for my benefit.
Cheers guys.
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