The Problem with Hope

by Nate P. (@BallCoach_Nate on X)

Hope is amazing.  Hope keeps us going.  Hope is the reason why we wake up in the morning.  But hope is not a plan. 

Every year, hundreds of players get drafted into the NFL and more are signed on for training camp trying to make an NFL roster.  And every year, there are thousands of us degenerates drafting Best Ball teams and making stacks while guessing which players get drafted to which teams.  If you’re like me, you’ve probably already drafted a hundred plus teams on Underdog or Draft Kings.  And like me, you probably swore when you realize you have 2 RBs on the same team and your Shedeur Sanders shares have a lower chance of taking down a tourney than for Shadeur to start in 2025.

Best Ball is supposed to be fun and nothing gets me fired up like getting shit right and learning from my previous year’s errors.  In 2024, I spent so many dollars chasing the Puka Nacua of 2023.  (The answer to Who is This Year’s Puka Nacua?  was NO ONE, idiot!)

It’s very, very hard to catch lightning in a bottle.  It’s even harder to nail a rookie mid to late round WR who falls in the perfect landing spot with a genius HC / Playcaller and for him to get peppered with 160 targets because the teams #1 WR hurts their hammy in camp and misses the first 4 games.  (Side note: Puka was drafted with the 43rd pick in the 5th round!  That’s a 6th rounder for me, dawg.)  Anywellllll, as we all know, Puka finished his rookie year with 105 Catches, 1,486 Yards and 6 TDs. 

::Enter Big Brain Nate::

“Let’s spend all offseason listening to draft podcasts and find the next Puka!”  From Malik Washington to Malik Nabers and all the Roman Wilson’s and Malachi Corley’s inbetween; I hammered rookie WRs like a sicko.   It started round 1 with Marvin dipping his toes from 14 ADP to 12 ADP and worked it’s way, way down the board to Bub Means and Brenden Rice – I was spraying and praying.  The teams were built with structure, stacks, and confidence.  The results were grim.  Of the 357 teams I drafted on Draft Kings, 17% of them advanced.  No lineups made the finals of any tournaments as well.  Netted a loss for my total buy-in and went into the playoffs pissed off.

This is inexcusable and I hold myself to a higher standard.  My goal is to advance 25% of my lineups or greater.  I have a few theories and ideas I like to model my teams and exposures to and I’ve been too rigid in the past.  Too confident that I knew it all.  I would not make that mistake again.

My brain started buzzin’.  I went through the 2024 draft class again and looked at the Wide Receivers production in their rookie year.  YEESH.  I was having PTSD of hearing some fantasy experts tout Ryan Flournoy and Ja’Lynn Polk.  They were supposed to win me GROUSANDS (yes, with a G) if not millions!  I had my alerts on for @ CoachSpeakIndex  and was glued to every morsel of information about all the rookies.  I knew I wanted to find my winning lottery ticket in there.  I can picture it now, Lamar Jackson to Devontez Walker for 9 catches, 182 yards and 3 TDs in week 17 to win the Milly!

::Record Scratch::

In 2024, there were 19 Wide Receivers drafted after the 3rd round.  They combined for 160 catches for 1,733 yards and 9 TDs (remember, Puka had 105 for 1,486 yards and 6 TDs as a 5th round pick.)  If you remove Devaughn Vele and Troy Franklin, this number drops to 91 catches for 995 yards and 4 TDs.  Here's the breakdown:

-Devaughn Vele (7th): 41 / 475 / 3

-Troy Franklin (4th): 28 / 263 / 2

-Malik Washington (6th): 26 / 223 /0

-Jordan Whittington (6th): 22 / 293 / 0

-Ryan Flournoy (6th): 10 / 102 / 0

Only 5 WRs drafted after the 3rd round topped 10 catches or more (that's 10 PPR points for those can't count). 14 WRs drafted after the 3rd round had less than 20 PPR points. Yes, 73% were ZEROES in my week 17 lineups, just like the previous 16 weeks. There was no Puka Nacua.  The dream died but more importantly, my hope died.

This year will be different.  In 2025, I will have zero exposure to hope.  I will have a planned attack and when I get to the green light and ticking down clock, staring at Elic Ayomanor and Andrei Iosivas, I’m taking the proven production.  I believe this will increase my advance rate which will increase my odds to make the finals.  No matter the situation, I believe I’ll be taking the proven veteran or the streaky sophomore WR over the speedy 5th rounder drafted into a lackluster depth chart (Looking at you Tory Horton).  You need to take some risks to win big but I also believe you can be calculated with these risks in order to increase your odds of winning. 

Shotgunning rookie WRs and hoping to have ONE WR have a historic, once in a two decade season, is not the strategy I’ll be using this year. 

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