Week 11 - DK Showdown SNF Preview (Bengals at Chargers)

Sunday night’s Showdown slate on DraftKings features the 4-6 Bengals traveling to Los Angeles to take on the 6-3 Chargers. The Bengals are coming off a one-point loss to the Ravens, their 5th one possession loss of the season, while the Chargers enter Sunday night on a 3-game winning streak. With the Chargers favored by 1.5 and the over/under set at 48, the game environment should lead to some fun fantasy production.

QUARTERBACK

·         CIN Joe Burrow ($10,600) – Joe Burrow has eclipsed 35 pass attempts in each of his last 3 games, and through week 10 the Bengals lead the league in pass rate over expectation (+6.3%, nfeloapp.com).  Sunday night will be quite a test for Burrow and the Bengals passing offense, however, as one of the best passing offenses in the league meets one of the best passing defenses.  Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers defense playing at an elite level, allowing 20 points just 1 time in 9 games this season.  They allow just 191.6 passing yards per game and have allowed just 2 250-yard passers.  If anyone is going to buck those trends, Burrow is the one.  He leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, and he is playing at an MVP level despite the team’s record.  Tee Higgins is set to return Sunday night, and I would expect the Bengals to continue to air it out as underdogs on the road.

·         LAC Justin Herbert ($9,400) – As Justin Herbert gets healthier, his fantasy production continues to grow.  He’s coming off 3 straight games of at least 19 DK points and had 7 rush attempts (not including kneel downs) last week against the Titans.  Sunday night, Herbert gets one of the worst pass defenses in the league.  The Bengals just allowed Lamar Jackson to go for 290 yards and 4 touchdowns and let Tylan Wallace break loose for 40% of his career receiving yards on one play.  Despite a run heavy approach most of the season, the Chargers have the 8th highest pass rate over expected the last 4 weeks.  Their game plan will likely feature Herbert going to the air against this weak Bengals pass defense.  Herbert hasn’t thrown an interception in 210 straight pass attempts, and this Bengals defense instills no fear that that will change Sunday night.   

RUNNING BACK

·         LAC JK Dobbins ($10,000) – Despite (or maybe because of) the weak Bengals pass defense, they do a decent job holding opposing RBs in check when it comes to fantasy production.  The Bengals D allows just .80 DK points per touch, the 9th best mark in the league.  They’ve also allowed just 3 100-yard rushers, and just 1 since week 4 (Saquon Barkley, week 8).  Dobbins is RB1 for the Chargers despite the return of Gus Edwards and should be in line for about 15 touches.  He’s averaging .87 DK points per touch, and it’s notable that the Chargers rolled to a 10 point win last week and Dobbins only ended with 8.5 DK points on 18 touches. I don’t view him as a primary target for my lineups at this price point.

·         CIN Chase Brown ($9,600) – Chase Brown is coming off 2 straight games of 20+ DK points as he has firmly taken over the backfield in Cincinnati.  He had 22 touches last week against Baltimore, including 9 receptions.  The previous week against the Raiders, he had 32 touches.  He’s a key component of this explosive Bengals offense and should have a big role again Sunday night against the tough Chargers pass defense.  He’s averaging .99 DK points per touch and I see him as a much better play than the more expensive Dobbins.

·         LAC Gus Edwards ($3,400) – Edwards is without an injury designation heading into Sunday night and received 10 carries last week in his first action since week 4.  He is not a receiving threat for the Chargers, but he’s received at least 10 carries in 3 of the 5 games he’s played.  At just $3,400, he’s a solid salary relief option that could find his way into the endzone.

WIDE RECEIVER

·         CIN Ja’Marr Chase ($12,000) – Chase is the highest priced player on the slate, and for good reason.  The league’s leading receiver is coming off a monster 11 catch, 264-yard, 3 touchdown performance in week 10 against the Ravens.  It’s notable that Tee Higgins will be back, and Chase’s production has dipped a bit with Higgins in the lineup this year.  In the 5 games Higgins has played, Ja’Marr averages 7.4 targets per game, compared to 10 targets a game with Higgins out.  This is not to say it would be a good idea to fade Chase Sunday night, as he’s averaging a career best 2.54 yards per route run and is a matchup proof player.  It should be considered that a 7-target game is possible with Higgins back, but that is likely a floor outcome.

·         CIN Tee Higgins ($8,600) – With no injury designation for Sunday, Higgins is set to make his return after a 3-game absence with a quad injury.  In the 5 games Higgins has played, he’s received 9 targets per game, more than the 7.4 Ja’Marr Chase averages when they play together this year.  Higgins has been very good when on the field this year, averaging 2.01 yards per route run and has scored 3 touchdowns in those 5 games.  Again, it’s a tough matchup for the Bengals passing game but this is an elite offense with a superstar quarterback.  Mixing Higgins in in Burrow stacks is plenty reasonable.

·         LAC Ladd McConkey ($8,200) – After receiving at least 6 targets in 6 straight games, McConkey received just 2 last week against the Titans.  This is more due to the game script than anything else, as the Chargers threw the ball just 18 times while controlling the game.  McConkey is averaging 12.6 DK points as a rookie, including a breakout game against New Orleans in week 8 where he scored 32.1 DK points.  He’s averaging 2.04 yards per route run, an elite number for a rookie and he’s been on the field for 95% of all Chargers pass plays.  This is another possible breakout spot for McConkey facing a weak Bengals pass defense.

·         LAC Quentin Johnston ($7,000) – After being written off all off-season by the fantasy community, Quentin Johnston has quickly turned the narrative of his career around.  Averaging 12 DK points per game and 1.99 yards per route run, he’s been a valuable piece of the Chargers passing offense.  He has been on the field for 95% of pass plays as well and has shown touchdown and big play potential.  Despite receiving just over 4 targets per game, he’s another solid option Sunday night against the leaky Bengals pass defense.  If Tylan Wallace can do it, so can Quentin Johnston.

·         LAC Josh Palmer ($5,800) – Palmer has had up and down production for the Chargers this year, with 3 games of 60+ receiving yards but 5 games under 40 receiving yards.  He hasn’t topped 5 targets in a game this year, so if you play him, you’re looking for him to rip a big play.  It’s certainly possible against this defense, but I would rank him 3rd of the 3 main Chargers receivers Sunday night.  The salary relief you get coming down from Johnston is beneficial but comes with volatile fantasy output.

TIGHT END

·         CIN Mike Gesicki ($6,200) – In the last 3 games without Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow has leaned on Gesicki to the tune of 9,6, and 8 targets.  Unfortunately for Gesicki, Higgins is back Sunday night.  In the last 4 games played with Higgins, Gesicki received 1,0,2 and 1 target.  The Chargers are also yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this season.  I’m not full fading Gesicki if I’m playing multiple lineups, but it’s reasonable to expect a regression in his fantasy production.

·         LAC Will Dissly ($5,200) – Dissly has 27 targets over his last 4 games and gets an enticing matchup Sunday night against Cincinnati.  The Bengals have already allowed 6 touchdowns to tight ends this year and are giving up the 5th most DK points per game to the position.  Dissly is yet to find the endzone this season but is enjoying a career year and is on pace to crush all his previous career highs.  I expect him to find the end zone sooner than later.

·         CIN Tanner Hudson ($3,800) – Despite a 6/42/1 performance last week against the Ravens, Hudson is just about all the way off my radar with Tee Higgins returning.  He had just 7 targets all season prior to last Thursday, and it’s tough to see him matching that production as he drops down the pecking order with Higgins back.  A full fade on Hudson is reasonable.

KICKER

·         CIN Evan McPherson ($5,000) – McPherson has just 4 made field goals in his last 6 games, so naturally expect him to match that Sunday night since I am writing about him.  In all seriousness, the Bengals are looking to push the ball into the endzone as their season is on the brink.  I expect them to be aggressive on 4th downs, as McPherson is just 13/17 this season and has attempted more than 2 field goals just twice all year.  I would find it hard to believe they want the fate of their season lying on McPherson’s leg.  He’s not a priority play Sunday night.

·         LAC Cameron Dicker ($5,400) – Dicker has also been a bit quiet lately, with just 4 made field goals in his last 3 games.  However, Jim Harbaugh has shown he’s perfectly fine taking the points.  In week 7, the Chargers lost 17-15, scoring all 15 points on field goals.  If I’m playing a kicker Sunday night, I’d lean towards Dicker. 

DEFENSE

·         LAC Chargers ($4,400) – As previously mentioned, the Chargers have allowed 20 points just once all season.  They have 18 sacks in their last 3 games and get a middling to weak Bengals offensive line.  Burrow has taken about 2.3 sacks per game this season, and if things get off the rails for the Bengals as they have at points this season, then we may see that number go up.  I like playing the Chargers defense in Charger-heavy builds in this matchup.

·         CIN Bengals ($4,000) – The Bengals defense has been a laughable fantasy play this season.  They’ve given up 30+ points 4 times and haven’t recorded a sack in 2 of their last 3 games.  In those 2 games without a sack, they scored -4 DK points both times.  Week 7 was the last time they recorded an interception and expecting that to change against Justin Herbert feels like a tall task.  Playing this defense is not a priority for me Sunday night.

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